Fantasy managers can expect a course correction in 2023, somewhere in the vicinity of 30+ HR, 110+ RBI, and an elite. 236/.388/.390 with only six homers and 16 RBI in 52 games, but he also took a trip to the NLCS. Reports also surfaced that he had turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from Washington, and soon, the HR Derby winner headed to San Diego with expectations as big as the contract he turned down. The first half of 2022 found him in a terrible lineup, so opposing pitchers walked him 95 times in 436 plate appearances. Heading into the season, Juan Soto is the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, which feels ridiculous to say about a guy who still ended with a WAR of 5.2. Just beware that his numbers might look much closer to 2021 than 2022. Judge is the guy if fantasy managers want to shore up their slugging early. What is not of concern are the 81 games he gets to play at Yankee Stadium this year and each one after until 2031, thanks to his 9-year, $360 million free-agent contract. Other concerns include the fact that Judge will be 31 years old for the majority of the season and played in a career-high 157 games last year.
Steamer projections have him at 43/109/104 for the upcoming season, and his ratios should see a small decline as well. The reason he may fall out of the 1.1 slot on draft day is simply fantasy managers anticipating the regression that is likely to come. Home Run record with 62, scoring 133 runs, driving in 131, and stealing 16 bases to boot. A lot of 2023 draft boards will have Aaron Judge at the top of them, and there is no doubt he belongs there after his record-setting 2022.
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